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Turkey, F-35 and the US – shifting relations

  • Writer: Boris Valov
    Boris Valov
  • Jun 17, 2019
  • 9 min read

In the last 2 years we have observed the gradual change in the relations between USA and Turkey.

For some that might sound more like a local issue concerning the stability and international status of one state but in fact shows much more.

The current international situation worldwide is more uncertain and partly because of some political leaders. Therefore, when we speak about the problems occurring around the US- Turkey relations we should delve deep in to the complex backgrounds of the countries as well giving the proper attention to the chain-like occurred circumstances. Both USA and Turkey are NATO members and that makes them partners in one vital alliance charged with the heavy responsibility of peacekeeping.

Starting with the original problem which spiked the tension between the two countries we need to address first the failed military coup against Erdogan (July 2016). The official version of the Turkish government was that the plan was created and conducted by a Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen. In fact, Gulen has lived in the Pennsylvania (US) since 1999 and is thought to be the mastermind behind this plot.

However, while there is no such evidence to support such claims by Ankara, they were using this as a main excuse for the nationwide purges of the public administration, high level operatives, opposition leaders and even school and university teachers. Many were accused of being Gulen supporters and lost their jobs. All escalated, and it went even further when vast amount of people was locked behind bars on suspicion of being part of the military coup. Amongst the victims of the government’s response was pastor Andrew Brunson. He was detained on allegations of being part of Gulen’s organization, again without prove (at least not publicly shown).

However, the division between Erdogan and Gulen has its history and many might see merit on both sides. Indeed, one thing became clear even in the summer of 2018 – Erdogan wants Gulen in Turkey and the coup, allegedly organized by Gulen and his supporters, was in fact in no one’s favor but Erdogan’s, since he was enabled on these grounds to ask for Gulen’s deportation back to Ankara. That is the reason why some people think the coup was created by Erdogan himself – not only to seize Gulen’s religious doings but also to stop his own declining popularity among the nation.

One thing might have not been calculated and that was the unwillingness of the US to hand over a US permanent resident. Moreover, one believed to be targeted by Erdogan and accepted as innocent by the American government. This makes it clear why the Turkish leader decided to pull this one over with Andrew Brunson, detaining him and using him as a leverage against the US.

Now here comes the interesting factor. Almost throughout the whole period, between 2016 and 2018 including, president Trump was engaging in different international economic relations with negative outcomes. In the political and international relations sphere – more well known as “trade wars”. The one with Mexico (following the “build the wall” case – which is still ongoing), another one with Canada over taxes on steel and aluminum imposed by the US[1], and third the trade war with China[2]. We should not forget the trade taxations on Europe’s most luxurious products. That of course created an “interesting mess” in terms of the economic relations between the US and pretty much the rest of the World. Indeed, many will argue that, that created more jobs for the Americans and boosted the economy, as well pushed the American customer towards American products over the imported ones.

And in that quite complex international environment in which Trump was clearly looking to show strength – Erdogan decided that the best move was to twist America’s arms into agreeing upon Gulen’s extradition. Well… what would have been the odds of that happening… I have no idea. My bet is that they were very small. The reaction from Trump came in 2018, two years after Brunson was detained and for that we cannot say that there was no negotiation time given to the government in Ankara. In response the US imposed sanctions on two of Turkey’s top officials. That was merely a symbolic act but short after that Trump raised tariffs on Turkey, imposing 20% tax on aluminum and 50% tariff on steel. That led to the rapid downward of the Turkish Lira. As it was pointed out in the beginning, Turkey is part of NATO and indeed a vital ally with strategic meaning. That was something Erdogan was and still is relying on when dealing with the US and even Russia. We can see that there is something quite interesting as a process going on – which can be addressed as a political tool of sort. And that is when the relations with USA are strained, Erdogan always turns his attention towards Putin’s Russia. Whether that would be regarding the new gas pipeline or the desire to buy from Moscow the S- 400 missile system it always serves the purpose of making the point: “we are our own masters”. Even though the National Security Adviser John Bolton met with the ambassador of the Turkish state, warning him that the States wont budge until the release of Brunson, we have to point out in that case the US’s superiority.

To be fair Erdogan tried his best before agreeing to free Brunson, using him as a bargaining chip for the release of Mehmet Hakan Atilla – banker in the Turkish state-owned HalkBank, who helped Iran evade oil sanctions. The links between Iran and Erdogan are notorious and go long back in history, however were further strengthened because of both countries strained relations with Israel.

The Turkish government was also not happy with the Trump’s support for the Kurdish militias in Syria – despite the US-Turkish agreement drown in early 2018.


Coming to this year’s tensions between the two countries – the situation relates to the purchasing of S-400 missile system by Turkey from Russia. There is nothing irregular – one country buying weapons from another which is the manufacturer. Washington has opposed Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 missiles ever since Ankara announced its decision to buy them in 2017.

However, in that case we have two factors. First the country buying the missile systems is a NATO member state. It should not be suggested that in such case a member state should only buy from the US, but purchasing strategic weapons from a country outside NATO and one against which there are numerous concerns, is not an option you can go for. Second – the manufacturing country is Russia. There are many reasons to suspect Russia to be one of the major forces behind many international conflicts – its resent involvement in Venezuela, the Poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in Salisbury (UK), its participation in Syria and cooperation with another thought to be hostile country such as Iran. Last but perhaps most important in terms of real violence – Crimea attack and the annex of sovereign territory. These are some of the many reasons why Russia is looked at as not reliable country and even less like an ally. The main defense shield of NATO is maintained exactly towards Putin’s Russia and purchasing Russian made weapons jeopardizes the security of the whole alliance and creates possibilities for security breach.

In addition, Turkey is in negotiation process with the US for the new F-35 jets to be purchased. However, that becomes more and more uncertain in the light of the events with the Russian S-400. Moreover, the US in the face of Patrick Shanahan (Secretary of Defense), and several senators explicitly asked Erdogan to stop the deal with Russia, otherwise they will back down on the F-35 jets. The reason behind this is the Russian weapon not being compatible with the air defense systems (F-35/ F-16/ Gripen/ Eurofighter etc.) used by NATO. The specialist on American side believe that the S-400 radar could hone in on the avionics of F-35 jet and spill its secrets. More specifically we should say that air defenses (talking about defending both against manned air crafts and ballistic missiles) – comprise a variety of radars and missiles, each tailored to dealing with specific kind of threat[3]. So, the issue is much more complex. If one vital ally (such as Turkey) wants to build a stand-alone system within the NATO strategy, then the general defense mix will be weakened. Moreover, like in the US-Turkey F-35 deal, military personal needs to be trained on both US and Turkish soil, the S-400 deal with Russia requires Russian troops to train Turkish ones on Turkish territory. That immediately raises the question: “what the Russians might learn along the process while installing the S-400?”.

Instead of Russian missile system the US is offering its own Patriot missiles, something they have offered many times I the past. Despite that Erdogan has stated already that the S-400 is a done deal, believing still that they can get both the Russian and US weapons together.

In this point Donald Trump has not conveyed the seriousness of the situation directly to Erdogan and thus making it easy for Ankara to dismiss light-handedly all messages by other members of the US administration. That is why Turkey proceeds on showing interest in other types of Russian military machinery, trying to find a substituted for the US’s F-35 in the face of the Su57(fighter jet).

Many defense experts suggest that in the end the decision will be political rather than a military one. That is part of the reason for Erdogan to feel closer to Putin than to Washington. And the reasons are few – Russia was more supportive towards the Turkish leader in 2016 coup, they were more cooperative with Ankara in Syria as well, whereas the US showed clear support for the Kurdish armed forces (which are regarded as terrorist by Erdogan). Another aspect is the possibility for additional sanctions by America on Turkey. The financial rating agency “Fitch ratings” warned that if American sanctions are to follow they will be determinant for the investors ration towards the Turkish Lira[4].

To tackle this issue the Pentagon managed to negotiate new, lower prices with Lockheed Martin Co – with price for one F-35 8,8% lower than its current value[5]. This way one jet would cost around $80 mill[6].

Despite that Erdogan has stated few times that the deal with Russia is already sealed and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it[7]. Even further he, has expressed the hope that the S-400 missile defense systems will start arriving in Turkey first part of July 2019[8]. In the light of that, one of the possible actions towards Ankara by the US government would be to pule out the country from the F-35 fighter jet program. That would not be from a benefit to the alliance since the unification of armed forces within NATO is on the go and even countries such as Bulgaria are about to jump from the old soviet systems to the modern F-16 block 70 fighter jets. However, Erdogan is feeling hopeful that at the upcoming G-20 summit he will be able to discus and even persuade president Trump on that matter.

In the meanwhile, the sanctions are not the only thing Turkey should worry about. The Moody’s Corporation (Financial service company) is cutting the national credit rating saying that “the risk of a balance of payment crisis continued to rise, and with it the risk of a government default.” Perhaps the financial stability in Turkey is still under risk and now with the rejection of full NATO cooperation, might go even deeper. Prove for that is the fact that the Lira dropped a bit to 5,9075 towards the dollar after the Turkish foreign minister Chavushoglu commented that Turkey is determined on acquiring the Russian S-400 systems[9].

Next in line

In the light of these events it is probably normal for some other country to swoop in and try to take the offered deal by the US for itself. In fact, the whole amount of F-35 jets, prepared for Turkey is around 100[10]. The F-35 program is ongoing in Switzerland and Finland. Poland and Greece have shown their desire to buy the fighter jets. In the same time Romania and Spain are also on the waiting list as prospective buyers.

Another country which is on the brink of buying the F-16 fighter jets is Bulgaria. The government was negotiating the price for some time. The south eastern European state experienced quite the pressure from Moscow, not to buy the US jets but to purchase Gripen[11] or Russian fighters. Despite that, Bulgaria is most probably going to buy the F-16, especially given the fact that the price was lowered by the US congress after being named “high and unjustified” by several Bulgarian officials, including the defense minister[12]. And indeed, the US Embassy in Sofia, has formally delivered a letter to the defense Ministry of Bulgaria regarding the deal for the F-16 Block 70 fighter aircraft and the preparedness of the US to finish the deal[13].

However, another question standing is - is Bulgaria going to enroll for two F-35 fighter jets, as former Bulgarian Foreign Minister Pasi suggests[14]? That combined with the ever so anti-US rhetoric of Erdogan and his constant military trade cooperation with Russia the situation in the area might change. General Joseph Ralston points out that the shifting relations with Turkey enable Bulgaria to become even more important in the region[15]. If the country expresses desire to purchase new F-35 fighter jets, will show a clear sign that the NATO member is taking the defense involvement at heart.















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